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AJP CME: July 2019 - Development and Validation of a Dementia Risk Prediction Model in the General Population: An Analysis of Three Longitudinal Studies

Activity Type:

  • Journal CME

Release Date: 7/1/2019

Expiration Date: 6/30/2021

  • AMA PRA Category 1: 1
  • Participation: 1



Objective: Identification of individuals at high risk of dementia is essential for development of prevention strategies, but reliable tools are lacking for risk stratification in the population. The authors developed and validated a prediction model to calculate the 10-year absolute risk of developing dementia in an aging population.

Methods: In a large, prospective population-based cohort, data were collected on demographic, clinical, neuropsychological, genetic, and neuroimaging parameters from 2,710 nondemented individuals age 60 or older, examined between 1995 and 2011. A basic and an extended model were derived to predict 10-year risk of dementia while taking into account competing risks from death due to other causes. Model performance was assessed using optimism-corrected C-statistics and calibration plots, and the models were externally validated in the Dutch population-based Epidemiological Prevention Study of Zoetermeer and in the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort 1 (ADNI-1).


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Educational Objective

The participant will recognize the role and importance of dementia risk prediction to effectively target preventive and therapeutic strategies.

Target Audience

This program is designed for all psychiatrists in clinical practice, residents in Graduate Medical Education programs, medical students interested in psychiatry, and other physicians who wish to advance their current knowledge of clinical medicine.

Estimated Time to Complete

Duration: 1 hour
Begin Date: July 1, 2019
End Date: June 30, 2021

How to Earn Credit

In order to earn CME credit, subscribers should read through the material presented in the article. After reading the article, complete the quiz and submit your evaluation and study hours (up to 1 AMA PRA Category 1 Credit™).  A score of 60% or higher is required to receive credit.


The American Psychiatric Association (APA) is accredited by the Accreditation Council for Continuing Medical Education (ACCME) to provide continuing medical education for physicians.

The APA designates this journal-based CME activity for a maximum of 1 AMA PRA Category 1 Credit™. Physicians should claim only the credit commensurate with the extent of their participation in the activity.

Faculty and Planner Disclosures

Title: Development and Validation of a Dementia Risk Prediction Model in the General Population: An Analysis of Three Longitudinal Studies

Authors: Silvan Licher, M.D., Maarten J.G. Leening, M.D., Ph.D., Pinar Yilmaz, M.D., Frank J. Wolters, M.D., Ph.D., Jan Heeringa, M.D., Ph.D., Patrick J.E. Bindels, M.D., Ph.D., Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, Meike W. Vernooij, M.D., Ph.D., Blossom C.M. Stephan, Ph.D., Ewout W. Steyerberg, Ph.D., M. Kamran Ikram, M.D., Ph.D., M. Arfan Ikram, M.D., Ph.D.

Affiliations: Department of Epidemiology (S.L., M.J.G.L., P.Y., F.J.W., J.H., M.W.V., M.K.I., M.A.I.), Department of Neurology (F.J.W., M.K.I.), Department of Cardiology (M.J.G.L.), Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine (P.Y., M.W.V.), and Department of General Practice (P.J.E.B.), Erasmus MC–University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston (M.J.G.L., F.J.W.); Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle University, Newcastle, U.K. (B.C.M.S.); Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands (E.W.S.); Center for Medical Decision Making, Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC–University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands (E.W.S.).

Disclosures: Dr. Leening has received grants from Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds, De Drie Lichten Foundation, Erasmus University Trustfonds, and the Albert Schweizer Hospital Research Fund with matching from the Oncology Research Albert Schweitzer Foundation and the Promoting Advanced Cardiology through Education Foundation; he has received personal fees from the American Heart Association, the Netherlands Epidemiology Society, the European Society of Cardiology, the Dutch Heart Foundation, and the Capri Cardiac Rehabilitation Foundation Rotterdam. The other authors report no financial relationships with commercial interests.

Discussion of unapproved or investigational use of products*: No.

*APA policy requires disclosure by CME authors of unapproved or investigational use of products discussed in CME programs. Off-label use of medications by individual physicians is permitted and common. Decisions about off-label use can be guided by scientific literature and clinical experience.

Program Planners

Ned H. Kalin, M.D. (Editor-in-Chief, AJP); Carolyn Rodriguez, M.D., Ph.D. (Deputy Editor, AJP); Michael D. Roy (Editorial Director, AJP); Michael A. Pogachar (Online Content Manager, Journals). Dr. Kalin has served as a consultant to the Board of Scientific Advisors, the Pritzker Neuropsychiatric Disorders Research Consortium, and the Skyland Trail Advisory Board and as Councilor, Society of Biological Psychiatry. Dr. Rodriguez has served as a consultant to Allergan, Blackthorn, Epiodyne, and Rugen. Mr. Roy and Mr. Pogachar report no financial relationships with commercial interests.

Hardware/Software Requirements

This internet-based CME activity is best experienced using Internet Explorer 8+, Mozilla Firefox 3+, Safari 4+. This Web site requires that JavaScript and session cookies be enabled. Certain activities may require additional software to view multimedia, presentation, or printable versions of the content. These activities will be marked as such and will provide links to the required software. That software may be: Adobe Flash, Adobe Acrobat, Microsoft PowerPoint, and Windows Media Player.
Optimal System Configuration:
  • Flash Player: Adobe Flash Player 10.1+ 
  • Browser: Firefox 3+, Internet Explorer 8.0+, Safari 4.0+, or Google Chrome 7.0+ 
  • Operating System: Windows XP+ or Mac OS X 10.4+ 
  • Internet Connection: 1 Mbps or higher
  • Screen Resolution: 1024 x 768 pixels.

Minimum Requirements:

  • Windows PC:500-MHz Pentium II; Windows XP or higher; 128 MB RAM; Video Card at least 64MB of video memory; Sound Card at least 16-bit; Macromedia Flash Player 10 or higher, audio playback with speakers for programs with video content; Firefox 1.1+, Internet Explorer 7.0+, Safari 1.0+, Google Chrome, or Opera
  • Macintosh: Mac OS X 10.3 or higher with latest updates installed; 1.83MHz Intel Core Duo or faster; RAM: 128MB or more; Video Card: at least 64MB of video memory; Sound Card: at least 16-bit

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